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La afirmación fue catalogada como uno de los puntos “positivos” de la Argentina, en un informe presentado a los organismos multilaterales de crédito por una encuestadora norteamericana operando en el país.
La afirmación fue catalogada como uno de los puntos “positivos” de la Argentina, en un informe presentado a los organismos multilaterales de crédito por una encuestadora norteamericana operando en el país.
A partir del resonante fracaso en la predicción de resultados por parte de las encuestadoras nacionales en las últimas elecciones, los organismos internacionales y las compañías multinacionales de crédito comenzaron a invertir en traer a sus propias encuestadoras al país. Sólo de este modo logran obtener datos confiables, que les permiten decidir sobre los pasos a tomar en el camino de la relación entre ellos y la Argentina.
En uno de los últimos “papers” enviados a los Estados Unidos, una encuestadora aseguró que el equipo económico “lucha contra la inflación conteniendo la presión sobre un peso cada vez más débil, tratando de prevenir la debacle de sus reservas”. Por otro lado, los analistas norteamericanos admiten haberse sorprendido por “el repentino cambio del Banco Central, subiendo la tasa de referencia 300 puntos básicos, solo dos días después de asegurar que los mantendría inalterados”.
Acorde a la encuestadora, todo esto ocurre en un momento en el que el gobierno no tiene espacio político para continuar aumentando las tasas, y se encuentra ante un ataque constante por la elevada e incontrolada inflación y las tarifas cada vez más altas. Por otro lado, el intento de la oposición de aprobar en el Congreso la iniciativa para detener los aumentos es “poco probable que tenga éxito”.
Como conclusión, la información entregada a los organismos multilaterales de crédito habla de una “creciente preocupación por cambios en el balance de poder puertas adentro del gobierno. La preocupación principal es la falta de control sobre la inflación y la depreciación de la moneda. Sería prematuro pensar que Federico Sturzenegger puede mantener su poder y autonomía”.
A continuación adjuntamos el documento en inglés al que tuvo acceso este medio.
ARGENTINA. 27 APRIL 2018 17:01 EDT
Short-term trajectory:

POSITIVE
Rate increase does not signal that central bank has regained autonomy
· The central bank raised its preferred interest rate by 300 points to contain pressures on the weakening peso and prevent the depletion of more reserves.
· That said, this does not necessarily mean the bank has regained autonomy to fight inflation more aggressively.
· Tensions within the administration’s economic team will persist, but adjustments will continue to advance.
On 27 April, the central bank raised its key rate by 300 basis points to 30.25% in a surprise decision, only two days after keeping rates unchanged. The decision was a response to growing pressures on the currency resulting from global pressures and domestic regulatory changes. With no political room to raise rates, and facing challenging inflationary dynamics, the central bank tried to prevent the peso from weakening further and intervened aggressively in the market selling more than $3 billion in reserves this week.
Moreover, all this happened in an increasingly complicated political week. The government has increasingly come under attack for higher inflation and higher tariffs, including efforts by the opposition in congress to pass legislation to stop the tariff increases (unlikely to succeed), as well as reducing provincial taxes to mitigate the impact of higher energy prices.
Back in December of last year, the government changed the central bank’s inflation targets to 15% in 2018 (from 12%) and pushed the bank to lower interest rates, at the time concerned with the appreciation of the currency, worsening current account deficits and the potential of an economic slowdown as it was trying to advance with several reforms. This was led by the chief of cabinet’s office but had the support of most of the economic team, all of which were frustrated with central bank president Federico Sturzenegger’s willingness to raise rates to meet inflation targets that were too ambitious, at the expense of economic and political viability of adjustments. The belief then was that gaining some competitiveness would help create political conditions for other adjustments, while the inflationary impact was going to be limited.
Now clearly the Central Bank’s leadership gained leeway to act, probably more because of a concern with a currency run in this delicate political context, with the FX (and reserves) as the objective, rather than inflation or a change in views in the government. What is not clear is whether the balance of power within the government has changed. Evidently the government became seriously concerned with the overall dynamics, but it would be premature to think that now Sturzenegger has regained power and autonomy. Inflation is at the top of Macri’s priorities, but he still has full trust in the chief of cabinet office, who are the ones that help him guarantee political conditions for reforms, and electoral victories and who are willing to have a slightly higher inflation equilibrium while they work on keeping Macri’s popularity on check and moving forward with the other adjustments. (www.REALPOLITIK.com.ar)
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